doug toombs - dot com

So, for all of you that are considering an iPhone purchase, and are looking for reliable information about the release of a 3G iPhone in the US … here is everything verifiable that - as of today, February 5th, 2008 - you probably want to know.

1. Officially, Apple has announced nothing about a 3G iPhone. Nothing at all.

2. If and when Apple has a 3G iPhone ready to hit the market, Apple still may not announce anything at all, before the day it is available for sale. This is very common for them, as it avoids eating into existing sales. Case-in-point: The new 16gb iPhone, released today — two days after I bought another 8gb iPhone to replaceme the one I broke. No real advance notice at all, otherwise I would have waited out the two days.

(See Also: Osborne Effect - “Most technology companies today guard against the Osborne effect by very strictly controlling information. In general, the stronger the market position of a company, the less it will reveal about product plans and pricing.“)

3. You think you read/heard a rumor that Steve Jobs said it was coming in 2008. No. Not exactly. On Tuesday, September 18th, 2007 after the UK iPhone launch, while fielding questions, Steve Jobs reportedly said the following:

“We’ve got to see the battery lives for 3G get back up into the 5+ hour range,” he said. “Hopefully we’ll see that late next year.“

“Hopefully”, “late next year” … and depending on how you read the sentence above, it could mean a few different things. So take that with a grain of salt. It seems very dependent on 3G chipsets getting to the power efficency levels that Apple wants.

4. You think you read/heard a rumor that AT&T said it was coming in 2008. Maybe. And maybe not. On Wednesday, November 28th, 2007, Randall Stephenson, Chief Executive Officer of AT&T was speaking at the Churchill Club. You can listen to the complete audio of the event here on AT&T’s website (or go here for the direct MP3 link). If you’re feeling impatient, skip forward to roughly the 45 minute mark, where you will hear Randall answer the following question:

Q: “The 3g iPhone. When?”

A: “Uh, has Jobs announced that? I don’t think he’s announced that.
You’ll have it next year.”

Q: “How much is it [the 3G chipset] going to affect the price of the phone?”

A: “I don’t know. Steve will dictate what the price of the phone is.“

Given that this was on November 28th, and that Steve had made his “Hopefully … late next year” comment about 2 months prior, for all we know, Randall might have just been playing off of Steve’s comment. It’s impossible to know for sure.

5. “Won’t they have to file with the FCC well in advance, and then we will know?” Yes, Apple will have to file with the FCC in advance of releasing a 3G handset in the United States. But that information can be kept confidential (i.e.: not leaked on the FCC website) until the product is very close to becoming available the market. While I wouldn’t even try to claim to be an expert on the legalities of what companies can ask the FCC to withhold, versus what the citizens of the US have a right to know, looking at the first iPhone launch paints a pretty clear picture. According to the FCC website, it would appear that Apple filed their documents for the iPhone on March 9th, but were able to keep them suppressed until about May 17th — about 43 days before the actual US launch on June 29th.

6. “I heard they were going to release a 3G iPhone in <insert non-US market here>”. I have no idea. And neither does anyone else. See point #1 above.

That’s it - that’s the FACTS as they exist today. Beyond that, anything else is rampant speculation … even if it comes from “financial analysts” from big brokerage firms.

But since no post about a 3G iPhone launch would be complete without add my own best guess in for good measure - so here it is: New 3G iPhone, not much sooner than Christmas 2008. And *at best*, you’ll have about 1 months’ advance notice…